Are Floods Being Caused Inadvertently by Geo-Engineering?

After what happened in Dubai, everyone is speaking about cloud-seeding and artificial rain, although technology has been around for some time. While we shall discuss the recent floods and excessive rainfall in Dubai shortly, we must revise our memories about cloud seeding, both as a technological achievement and a practice. 

What is Cloud Seeding?

The Desert Research Institute (DRI) defines cloud seeding as “a weather modification technique that improves a cloud’s ability to produce rain or snow by introducing tiny ice nuclei into certain types of subfreezing clouds.”

The externally introduced nuclei act as a base for snowflake formation. Once the process of cloud seeding is done, these snowflakes experience rapid growth and fall back to the earth from the clouds. 

Cloud seeding may occur as a result of broadly two different operation types. The first involves ground-based generators, and the second utilizes aircraft. In the recent rains in Dubai, newspaper reports suggested that the cloud seeding operations might have been carried out using small, slow-moving aircraft. However, the phenomenon requires more close inspection. 

Click here to learn why cloud seeding remains controversial after 75+ years.

Recent Floods in Dubai

In Dubai, the cloud seeding missions are managed by the National Centre of Meteorology, a government task force. In light of the recent excessive rainfall and floods in Dubai, the NCM clearly stated that although it had tracked the incoming heavy rainfall, it did not target any clouds during that period. They claimed the recent rainfall was caused purely by nature. 

Omar AlYazeedi, the deputy director general of the NCM, was clear enough to say that the agency ‘did not conduct any seeding operations during this event.’ 

To provide more context, the comments came in response to the rainfall that the UAE, as a country, witnessed on Tuesday, April 16th. It was reportedly the country’s ‘heaviest downpour to date.‘ In the Emirate of Al Ain, UAE, the downpour was more than 250 mm (10 inches). Dubai, on the other hand, saw a downpour of more than 100 mm, nearing UAE’s annual average rainfall of anywhere between 140 and 200 mm. 

While the excessive rainfall shocked many, reports were suggesting that a rise in rainfall in the Gulf over the last few years was an undeniable reality. Reports published in the journal Nature estimated that precipitation levels could see a 30% rise in the coming years. 

While climate change keeps manifesting itself in various forms and modes throughout the planet, and the recent rains and floods could definitely be an outcome of that, it is also true that Dubai, and the UAE as a whole, have an established practice to try out cloud seeding mechanisms as and when necessary. And that is what fuelled speculations about the recent events being also an outcome of cloud seeding. 

Did Cloud Seeding Cause the Recent Flood?

The officials have already ruled out the possibility of a cloud seeding operation taking place in Dubai. Therefore, we now move into the domain of speculations. However, these speculations were not entirely baseless. They originated when Ahmed Habib, a specialist meteorologist, suggested that the recent rains were partly due to cloud seeding. He also informed the press that six pilots had reportedly flown during the cloud formation to take advantage of the convective cloud formations. Nonetheless, according to the NCM, the seeding took place on Sunday and Monday, not Tuesday. Even Habib, on a later instance, said that the pilots had flown as part of a protocol and jad not seeded any clouds. 

Another reason the speculations gained steam was the UAE’s more than three-decade history of cloud seeding. 

Dubai’s Cloud Seeding Initiative

Dubai’s tryst with cloud seeding technologies started in the 1990s. Back then, the methodology was not as well-known as it is today. However, for desert-heavy terrain like the UAE and Dubai, these solutions have already been discussed as sustainable and long-term ways to combat the challenges the future could bring. It is evident that the anticipated future has arrived now. 

Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Vice President of the UAE, allocated as much as US$20 million for cloud seeding research by the early 2000s. The UAE also struck a collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado and NASA. These US-based expert agencies helped them set up the program. 

The National Centre of Meteorology, which has been referred to in this context multiple times already, was formed as an outcome of this program. The NCM has helped perform more than 1,000 hours of cloud seeding each year, resulting in significantly enhanced rainfall. 

Therefore, it is no wonder that the recent heavy rainfall and floods in Dubai were immediately associated with the country’s cloud seeding program. 

The outcome of these events had a multifaceted impact. One of the most crucial aspects of the project was the construction of rain- and flood-proof infrastructure. Reports alleged that UAE’s infrastructure, its buildings, roads, and airports, were inadequate. Seemingly, the infrastructure of the region was built according to its pattern, which witnessed minimal rainfall. And this is where the larger question arose: how important is it to have adequate water-control infrastructure in regions that utilize cloud seeding?

On the Necessity of Water-Control Infrastructure in Areas that Conduct Water Seeding

The most crucial aspect of developing protective infrastructure is developing a robust drainage system. It is vital to update a region’s drainage system regularly, keeping pace with the growing population and water usage. Another very important task is controlling and reducing a region’s carbon emissions over time. Achieving the target of carbon emissions results in building a sustainable circular economy that leads to efficient resource management and green infrastructure building. 

Dubai witnessed severe rainfall, which caused the floods. Otherwise, the UAE regularly updates its drainage networks. In June 2023, Dubai approved a $21.8 billion sewerage system plan endorsed by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and chairman of the Executive Council. The sewerage system is expected to have a lifespan of 100 years, up from 25 years previously. 

The fact that cloud seeding offers relief to areas that suffer each year from scorching heat makes it an important geo-engineering tool. Yet, inadvertently, it might lead to situations that would be harmful to a region’s citizenry and infrastructure. Therefore, it is crucial that any pre-implementation research looks sufficiently into the practice’s benefits and drawbacks.

Click here to learn how climate models are pointing to the growing importance of geo-engineering.

The Benefits and Drawbacks of Cloud Seeding

There are strong opinions on both sides. On one hand, the advocates of cloud seeding see it as a useful tool to fight drought or forest fire. However, a lot of its efficacy depends on how much control the users have over these tools. If the control is weak, the same rainfall or downpour that helps fight drought or forest fires may lead to severe floods. 

There are studies that accept that the climatic effects of cloud seeding projects are difficult to determine precisely. On average, these studies predict anywhere between 10 and 15% increase in annual precipitation as a result of cloud seeding. But the question is, at what cost? Is artificially impregnating the cloud a good thing in the long run, especially when it comes to maintaining the balance in the natural order of things?

One of the most crucial debates in this regard revolves around the selection of the material. The most common material used for the nucleation process is Silver Iodide. It has efficient ice nucleating properties. However, many experts doubt this compound and believe it could have toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic life. The advocates of cloud seeding continue hunting for less harmful alternatives, which could include negatively charged ions like calcium chloride. But there is no foolproof certainty yet. 

Silver iodide is not only harmful itself, but it creates a conducive space for other pollutants by pumping up particulate matter concentration. 

Another potential risk arises from the intent of the countries using it. There are chances of cloud seeding being used as a means of warfare, wherein one nation would cause excessive rainfall in another to destabilize the agrarian economy, disrupt the food chain, and disrupt public life. 

There are reports of private companies using it to serve their purpose. For instance, insurance companies fund these programs to minimize the potential damage that could be caused to agriculturists who have purchased crop insurance and now anticipate a drought. These projects could also help ski resorts intensify snowfall or boost hydroelectric companies’ spring runoff. 

However, the question remains: is such tampering with nature justified? While making matters better for immediate gains, are we not worsening them for future generations?

These debates are ongoing worldwide, and amidst all these, there are some companies that are focusing on the prudent and beneficial use of cloud seeding. We will look into a couple of such initiatives/projects in our concluding segment. 

#1. Weather Modification, Inc.

An atmospheric sciences company based in Fargo, North Dakota, United States, Weather Modification Incorporated has been in business since 1961. It helps increase rainfall, mitigate hail damage, and disperse fog. It is proficient in both types of cloud seeding, including aerial and ground-based. Its aircraft installations are approved by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

The company’s efforts to mitigate hail damage help protect crop yields, homes, and other economic resources. Its fog dispersion activities help keep public life active and running, minimizing financial losses to a country’s economy. 

One of the most endearing success stories of the company’s cloud seeding program is when it helped Maharashtra, one of the largest and wealthiest of India’s 30 states, with 110 million residents living in Mumbai and other large cities. 

While the state’s majority of farms depended on rain for irrigation, agriculture production dropped by almost a third between 2013 and 2015 due to a severe lack of rainfall. Weather Modification, Inc. helped the state carry out a $4.5 million cloud-seeding program over three months across 100 square miles in the middle of the state, the largest campaign of this kind ever attempted in India. 

While elaborating on the impact of the program, Patrick Sweeney, the Chief Executive of WMI, said:

“People in Maharashtra are hoping for a cure-all to drought. They come out and dance in the streets when it rains; they hug our pilots and say, ‘Do it again.’”

#2. RHS Consulting, LTD.

As a privately owned cloud seeding and weather modification company based in Nevada, USA, RHS Consulting specializes in winter cloud seeding and weather modification operations and research. Its goal is to benefit cloud seeding when natural cloud systems cannot efficiently produce precipitation.

In the southern Sierra region, the company has been seeding late spring convective storms with warm cloud bases. These efforts by companies like RHI have helped the Sierra region fight severe drought. In 2017, a weather report noted the improvement and clearly observed the following: 

“The central Sierra is also on a record pace for precipitation, but the southern Sierra is currently in second place, just behind the wettest year on record of 1968-69.”

The RHI is known for improving precipitation levels through the correct method in regions where it is really required. It is an expert in both dynamic seeding and hygroscopic cloud seeding. 

Summarily, cloud seeding can be very beneficial if done with proper caution and balance. However, if the technology falls into the wrong hands or goes into overdrive, the consequences could be disastrous. Like every scientific discovery, its success depends on how we manage it and steer it carefully through thick and thin.